Questions for the 2024 Royals
Questions for the 2024 Royals
The ones that play baseball, that is.
We’ve arrived at Opening Day.
The new season begins today (for 28 teams, since the Dodgers and Padres opened last week in South Korea) and I don’t know about you, but I’m pretty dang happy about it.
Sure, watching the Royals on television isn’t the most convenient experience in the world, and the whole stadium tax issue brings some complicated feelings into the picture, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to be a season that ends in a parade, but still: it should be fun.
After an active offseason, the Royals are widely expected to see a significant improvement in the win column in 2024, but a season’s story is often told through much more than the game results, so there are a handful of potential storylines to which I’ll be paying attention as the grass greens and the flowers bloom. Below I’ve got a few questions that have been rattling around my brain, along with some thoughts on each one. Feel free to drop your own takes in the comments, as well.
Can Bobby Witt, Jr. go 40/40?
Last year, Bobby Bob Bob became the first Royal with a 30 HR/30 SB season, and came just one steal shy of 30/50. He awed fans with sparkling defense, blazing speed, and breathtaking power at critical times.
But could he take yet another step forward?
*holds hand to earpiece*
The answer appears to be yes.
Last season I correctly predicted Witt would go for 30/30, and my other predictions were *turns on blender full of bolts and wood chips* so obviously I know what I’m talking about.
Throughout the season, I tracked Witt’s progress on a Twitter thread and after he hit the milestone, I was asked if he would put up a 40/40 season in 2024. I said yes at that time, and I’m sticking to it. Bobby Bob Bob 40/40 Update begins today.
Can Cole Ragans maintain his performance from 2023?
From the time he entered the Royals’ starting rotation for good on August 2 through the end of the season, no pitcher in baseball struck out more batters than Ragans. He allowed the second-fewest home runs in the 10th-most innings, allowed the ninth-lowest rate of balls hit at least 95 mph, had the seventh-lowest adjusted ERA, posted the fifth-best K-BB%, and accumulated the seventh-most WAR (he had the highest WAR according to Fangraphs’ version, but I don’t care for FIP so I won’t use that version).
The point is: he was incredible.
If the Royals want to have any real chance of contending for the division, they’ll need Ragans to continue looking like a Cy Young candidate. He’ll be throwing more innings than he’s ever thrown before, and batters have a bit more video on him this year, so it will be tough to repeat. However, there’s not much in his statistical profile to indicate last year was a fluke.
He limited contact, limited hard contact, had reasonable BABIP and LOB rates, and his pitch-level data shows actual changes to his repertoire from previous seasons that suggests those changes could stick around. He throws hard, has plenty of pitches to rely upon, and while injury is a risk, if he stays healthy I think we’ll see Ragans join Witt in the All-Star Game.
Will any of the “other guys” step up?
I think it’s safe to assume Witt and Vinnie Pasquantino will lead the way on offense, and Salvador Perez should bring some thunder, but in order for the Royals to not only compete this year, but to see a path to contention in 2025, they’ll need at least a few other players to become reliable at the plate.
From that next tier of players, Kansas City needs to see consistency and improvement from three or four, at minimum. Guys like Maikel Garcia, MJ Melendez, Michael Massey, Nick Loftin, Nelson Velazquez, Nick Pratto, Kyle Isbel, Drew Waters, or even prospects such as Tyler Gentry all have an opportunity to show they belong on the next good Royals team.
They don’t need everyone to hit like stars, but maybe it’s Melendez and Velazquez showing their second halves were legit while Garcia realizes some of his power potential and Isbel becomes a solid bat in the nine-hole. Or maybe Loftin and Massey show they both deserve to be in the lineup, and Waters and Pratto figure out their strikeout issues somewhat. Regardless of who it is, the front office will need to see who can be counted on, and who needs to be replaced with someone who can be counted on.
I feel relatively optimistic about Melendez, Massey, and Garcia, but none of the players listed are sure things. It will be interesting to watch what kind of progressions take place this season.
Can JJ Piccolo duplicate some magic at the trade deadline?
Last year’s trade haul included Ragans, Velazquez, and James MacArthur, plus intriguing young players like Devin Mann, Derlin Figueroa, and Roni Cabrera. This year, if the Royals are not in contention, players like Will Smith, Chris Stratton, and Hunter Renfroe will likely be shopped to contenders.
I don’t know if it’s fair to expect another Cy Young candidate, but young arms with potential are always worth acquiring for rentals. The leaps that Ragans and MacArthur took after coming to Kansas City suggests the organization may be able to help pitchers more than they have in the past, and while there’s never a guarantee on that front, any improvement is nice to see.
And even beyond the veterans, the Royals could certainly look for deals around players like Brady Singer, Melendez, Carlos Hernandez, and others. There’s no Juan Soto trade to be found, but again, the Royals will need to make the most of the assets they do have.
For an organization so bereft of pitching development for so long, the Royals seemed to guide a pair of newly acquired pitchers to the top of their rotation and the back of their bullpen. Perhaps they can uncover some other diamonds in the rough during the trade deadline this season, assuming they aren’t on the buying side of the equation.
Will the farm system bounce back from a rough 2023?
Speaking of those young arms with potential: Beyond the big leagues, and maybe even including them, this is probably the most important question for the Royals organization in 2024. Gavin Cross plummeted off of top prospect lists after a brutal season with a .203/.298/.378 line. Frank Mozzicato started strong but ended with a 7.14 ERA in his last 12 starts. Blake Mitchell’s professional debut didn’t change the mind of anyone who panned his selection in last year’s draft.
That being said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the Royals’ farm system is seen in a more positive light by the end of the season. Cross had a tick-borne illness that likely had an impact on his season. Mozzicato’s struggles began after a collision with a teammate in practice that cost him two weeks. Mitchell was a risky pick, but the tools are obvious, and he’s now completed his first offseason with a professional organization, which is a bit of a change from high school.
Certainly prospects are never safe bets to improve, but development is not linear, and some of the changes the Royals implemented in the last couple of years could take time to show long-term growth. The reports on Blake Wolters have been solid, there are some arms in the upper minors showing big-league potential, even if it’s in the back of a rotation, and they’ll also be adding another top-six draft pick (the lottery is dumb and bad and the people who created it should feel dumb and bad) so I do think the system overall could see a bump in rankings next year, even if it’s not across-the-board improvement.
How many games will the Royals win in 2024?
As I mentioned yesterday, this team feels like it has a more narrow band of potential outcomes, with veterans offering a bit more safety, and not as many players capable of star-turns. Barring widespread injuries and unexpected All-Star seasons, I think the Royals likely finish between 69 and 84 wins.
Oh, you wanted an actual answer?
Okay fine. I’ll say 76 wins and then if it’s different in October I’ll update this post without you ever knowing it.
Lastly, some league-wide predictions with near-zero thought given:
AL MVP: Corey Seager
NL MVP: Ronald Acuña, Jr.
AL CY: Luis Castillo
NL CY: Logan Webb
AL ROY: Wyatt Langford
NL ROY: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
AL Division winners: Baltimore, Minnesota, Texas
NL Division winners: Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles
AL Wild Cards: Tampa Bay, Houston, Seattle
NL Wild Cards: Philadelphia, Arizona, New York
World Series: Atlanta over Seattle
It’s Opening Day, people. Let’s have some fun.