Thoughts on the Draft and the Royals' Second Half
The next few months will likely be bad. The results of the draft are less certain.
The unofficial start of the second “half” of baseball season begins tomorrow. Half is in quotes because words mean things! We can’t just go around totally discarding what the word “half” actually means! We live in a society!
Anyway.
The first “half” of the Royals season was, to put it gently, not very enjoyable. To put it less gently: it sucked. From the massive underperformances from players expected to progress, to the injuries to players expected to contribute, there was a lot to loathe about the first three months of the 2023 season.
Thankfully, that’s over now. So we can begin the offseason and -
*puts finger to earpiece*
Ah, I see.
It turns out we have more than 70 games of Royals baseball left this year, which seems like a violation of the Geneva Convention, but alas, the baseball will continue until morale improves.
While I do think the next two-plus months could be rough for the boys in blue - particularly after the trade deadline, more on that soon - I am looking forward to following a few different things as fall approaches. Before diving into that, a few thoughts on the draft.
The MLB Draft ended earlier this week, and the Royals’ selections received mixed reviews. I don’t know enough about draft prospects to have an unassailable opinion on these kinds of things, but I think they did Fine. Not amazing, not terrible, just fine. Drafting high school catcher Blake Mitchell in the first round is risky, though it comes with significant upside, and the same can be said of high school pitcher Blake Wolters in the second round. They picked up a couple of talented players in later rounds with Hunter Owen and Jared Dickey, not to mention guys like Spencer Nivens and Jacob Widener who could certainly find roles on a big-league roster.
Reasonable people can disagree on the projections for the draft picks, but there’s two things I want to say here. One thing I believe to be an incontrovertible truth, the other, perhaps a bit more controvertible:
None of the picks matter if the Royals’ development process fails.
This development process is not the 2000-2018 development process.
Plenty of ink has been spilled on the changes to the development systems in the minor leagues, on both the hitting and pitching sides. To this point, the only ample evidence for or against those changes exists for players who entered the system prior to the changes. That is, there haven’t really been any blank slates.
So while we can project some things based on what we’ve seen from guys like Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, Austin Cox, and others, at this point the Royals basically have Schrödinger's development system.
The changes have been made, and while I can’t begrudge someone for assuming the system will still fail because - to continue the metaphor and make it darker - Schrödinger had a long history of killing cats, especially ones with significant arm talent, we really won’t know until we know.
I don’t say this to give the Royals an indefinite amount of time to see results, but I do think it’s fair to see if the changes bear fruit in the next season or so. And based on recent draft classes, I also think it’s fair to say we’ve seen some positive signs.
That tweet and some that followed were not real analysis, but there is a point: the Royals have had guys do well enough to earn call-ups and produce, and it’s possible we see even more in the very near future.
Between the draft classes of 2018-2020, the Royals might have an additional six or seven players contribute to the big-league club over the next year-plus, on top of the dozen who have already done so (to varying levels of success, of course). There are a few bright spots on the farm as well, but ultimately, it comes down to the development process, and the Royals’ failure to develop Chris Dwyer doesn’t mean Jonathan Bowlan is doomed. Ben Kudrna’s future isn’t determined by Bill Fischer. Blakes Mitchell and Wolters are coming through a different environment, and their ability to become stars or not does not depend on the circumstances of the past.
Besides, if the approach to every prospect is “Royals development BAD” then this whole exercise is even more meaningless.
Now, things I’m watching in the second “half.”
Bobby Witt, Jr. vs Fastballs
I shared some stats about this on Twitter the other day, and I think it’s worth monitoring as the season progresses.
The small sample in July minimizes how well Witt did in June, slugging .528 against all fastballs. Pitchers noticed and have thrown him fewer fastballs lately, so it remains to be seen if he can keep this up, but it’s encouraging to see Witt adjust to fix what had been his biggest weakness as a batter. If he continues, his ceiling raises immensely.
Young Pitching Debuts
We’ve already seen Austin Cox set MLB records in his debut season, while Alec Marsh has flashed elite stuff and allowed a few too many runs. Considering potential/likely trades of guys like Scott Barlow, Taylor Clarke, and Ryan Yarbrough, among others, we’re almost certainly going to see a handful of other big-league debuts from Anthony Veneziano, Jonathan Bowlan, Will Klein, Jonah Dipoto, or maybe even someone like Steven Cruz, not to mention the Royals debut for Cole Ragans.
Will any of them be good? Maybe! Also, maybe not! I am looking forward to finding out.
Trade Season
Speaking of Ragans, who else will be joining the Royals organization by August 1, and relatedly, who will be leaving? Along with the three pitchers mentioned above, Nicky Lopez, Edward Olivares, and Matt Duffy are a few guys who may be taking their last swings in Royal blue this month.
Can the Rookies Take Another Step?
Maikel Garcia is putting up a very impressive season, and while it’s not going to result in a Rookie of the Year award, it’s possible he ends up on a ballot or two if he can tap into a bit more power at the plate. Marsh has the kind of stuff that could dominate lineups at times if he can harness his command, but that is a sizable if. I think Cox has a future in the big leagues, but the question of where he fits is very much in question.
Will My Predictions Be Correct?
Let’s recap those, shall we?
Salvador Perez will hit 40+ home runs.
He’s at 15 now, so under a 30-homer pace, in large part to his extended slump through June. But he’s Salvy, and therefore he cannot be counted out, even with the nagging injuries. I’m not expecting 40, but the odds are easily above zero.
Bobby Witt, Jr. will have a 30/30 season.
Through game 91, Witt is sitting at 14 dingers and 27 steals. That’s a pace of 25 homers and 49 steals over 162 games, so he’ll need to rack up a few more home runs to hit that mark, but his improvements lately have me optimistic.
Royals pitchers will be better than last year, but still not better than average.
Last year’s staff had an ERA+ of 86. This year they’re at 84 and they’re probably going to trade away their best reliever. So, yeah.
At least two Royals will make the All-Star Game.
Not my best work, that.
The Royals will be close to contention for half the season.
I’m very bad at this.
The Royals will win 75 games in 2023, finishing in fourth place in the division.
If you add their 19 Spring Training wins to their 26 in the regular season, they only have to go 30-41 to make me look slightly less like an idiot. I’m counting this as a potential win.
AL MVP: Julio Rodriguez
NL MVP: Juan Soto
AL CY: Alek Manoah
NL CY: Sandy Alcantara
AL ROY: Gunnar Henderson
NL ROY: Jordan Walker
AL Division Winners: TOR, CLE, HOU
NL Division Winners: NYM, STL, SDP
AL Wild Cards: SEA, NYY, LAA
NL Wild Cards: PHI, ATL, LAD
World Series: Toronto over San Diego
Just freaking crushing it, you guys.
It’s not looking good for me, or for the Royals, but the baseball returns tomorrow regardless. And as far as I’m concerned, even bad baseball is still worth watching.